I'm going to go out on a limb by predicting that not only is Mitt Romney going to lose November's election but that the Republican Party itself will never win another presidential election until they reinvent themselves to be more in tune with modern society.
- Women are becoming more aware of their rights as individuals, and men too are more accommodating of an equal role for women. A religious view of abortion imposed on women will be resisted strongly, yet this is exactly the position that the Republican party has adopted. The term "the Republicans' war on women" is increasingly heard, as is the slogan, "If you're a woman and vote Republican, you're a moron".
- Non-white births now outnumber whites, and many US cities have non-white majorities. The demographics are shifting towards an ethnically pluralistic society. In a country where elections are decided by marginal states and marginal constituencies within states, minor demographic shifts can have major electoral consequences. The Republicans' social conservatism (evidenced by their hard-liners' opposition to the DREAM Act) is, arguably, inherently less friendly to diversity. The party's public posture is a more sanitised pro-nationalism and integration, but the views of the rank and file are more xenophobic and exclusionary, and this is the true face of the party. It's a formula for electoral loss.
- Society is becoming more understanding and tolerant of what used to be considered "sexual deviance". Gay rights are far less controversial to the average person, and contraception even less so. The traditional family is no longer seen as the only acceptable social unit. Social conservatives (the core of the Republican party) are increasingly isolated from the views of mainstream society.
- Education and scientific thinking are becoming more widespread. Blind belief in doctrine, whether of the religious or nationalistic kind, is less prevalent among the educated. These positions are mainstays of the Republicans, and they are increasingly being abandoned, even if not always publicly questioned, by the educated voting public. It explains why the "blue states" (Democrat-leaning) are the coastal states where education levels are high, and "red states" (Republican-leaning) are in the less educated heartland.
- Religion (especially dogma and superstition) are losing their grip. The social conservatives' base is steadily eroding, and we must not mistake noise for number. Bible-thumping seems a joke to all but the most hardcore supporters.
- There is an increasing awareness of economic unfairness. John Steinbeck's quote (“Socialism never took root in America because the poor see themselves not as an exploited proletariat but as temporarily embarrassed millionaires”) is not as true as it once was. The worldwide Occupy movement has focused the attention of the 99% against the 1% everywhere, including the US. This is a genie that cannot be put back in the bottle by cutting taxes for the rich and managing the deficit by slashing programs for the poor, which is the Republicans' plan for ending the deficit.
- All of the above are aspects of generational change. The young are more likely to be educated and have socially progressive views. The more conservative tend to be older and (how do I say this delicately?) are dying out, both literally and figuratively. With each election, the demographic shifts to a more liberal group of voters.